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Pillars of Justice

Analysis of South Africa's Residential Property Market Outlook for 2024

Prepared by Gerhard Barnard Inc Attorneys & Conveyancers

We present a comprehensive analysis of the current state and future projections of South Africa's residential property market for the year 2024. The insights provided herein are vital for homeowners, property investors, and stakeholders in the real estate sector.

Key Findings

1. Market Projections: Lightstone's House Price inflation forecast for 2024 indicates a challenging landscape for South Africa's residential property market. Forecasts suggest that the market's performance may average below inflation, potentially leading to a decline in property values in real terms by the end of the year.

2. Economic Scenarios: Lightstone has outlined three economic scenarios influencing property prices in 2024:

- Low Scenario: Anticipates a GDP of 0% and core inflation of 5%.

- Mid Scenario: Based on a GDP of 1% and core inflation of 4.5%.

- High Scenario: Assumes a GDP of 1.2% and core inflation of 3.5%.

3. HPI Projections: House Price Inflation (HPI) projections range from 1.8% to 3.5%, with luxury homes expected to perform relatively better compared to mid and high-value properties.

4. External Factors: Persistent challenges such as load shedding, water outages, and socio-economic difficulties are likely to dampen market sentiment and hinder short-term improvements.

5. Policy Implications: Recent policy changes, including the end of solar rebates and unchanged property taxes, have raised concerns among industry stakeholders. The absence of adjustments in the transfer duty exemption threshold may also impact market activity negatively.


1. Stay Informed: Homeowners and investors should stay abreast of market trends, economic indicators, and policy changes affecting the real estate sector.

2. Seek Expert Advice: Given the complexities of the current market environment, consulting with legal and real estate professionals is essential for making informed decisions regarding property transactions and investments.

3. Diversify Investments: Consider diversifying investment portfolios beyond residential property to mitigate risks associated with market volatility.

4. Advocacy and Engagement: Engage with policymakers and industry bodies to advocate for measures that promote market stability and sustainable growth in the residential property sector.

The outlook for South Africa's residential property market in 2024 is characterized by subdued growth and challenges stemming from economic uncertainties and policy changes. As homeowners, investors, and legal professionals, it is imperative to navigate these challenges prudently and adapt strategies to capitalize on emerging opportunities while safeguarding against potential risks.

For expert guidance and tailored legal assistance in navigating the complexities of property transactions, trust Gerhard Barnard Inc Attorneys & Conveyancers to be your reliable partner in the dynamic real estate landscape of South Africa.

For inquiries or legal assistance, please contact Gerhard Barnard Inc Attorneys & Conveyancers.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or financial advice. Readers are encouraged to seek professional advice tailored to their specific circumstances.

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